Who's Afraid Of Little Old Me?
The vibes of an election can make or break a party's chances of pulling off the improbable, the impossible, or the inevitable. Two demographics in particular might hold the key for the Liberals.
This is the second of three articles in A Commons Carol - reflecting on the past, understanding the present, and looking ahead to the future. Stay tuned for part three on Monday!
There’s going to be an election soon. The Liberals could win a plurality. They could win a majority. They could be the Official Opposition. They could fall further.
A lot can happen in a few weeks’ time, but what’s certain is that the vibes of this election are significantly different than 2021.
The ongoing polling swings are precipitated by a confluence of factors - the Prime Minister’s resignation, the rapid evolution of Donald Trump’s presidency, the Liberal leadership race itself, among others - but there are some warning signs just over the horizon that should put Liberals in organizational, outreach, and communications shops on pause.
Germany’s most recent election had some incredibly fascinating results among Gen Z voters - in this case, those aged 18 to 24:
Men
27% - Alternative for Germany (AfD)
16% - Union (CDU/CSU)
16% - Die Linke (The Left)
12% - Social Democrats (SPD)
10% - Grüne (Greens)
Women
35% - Die Linke (The Left)
14% - Alternative for Germany (AfD)
13% - Social Democrats (SPD)
11% - Grüne (Greens)
10% - Union (CDU/CSU)
Germany’s two mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties are the Union and SPD respectively. Every German Chancellor since reunification in 1991 came from one of those parties, and they’ve dominated representation in the Bundestag ever since.
But now, we see a rather stunning divide being formed - by gender and by age. Young men supported the far-right AfD more than any other party, while young women supported Die Linke more than any other party. Men drifted right, women drifted left - and it’s a pattern we’re seeing across the board.
Let’s take a look at last year’s American presidential election. The exit poll done by a consortium of news organizations (including CNN and NBC) expanded the demographic to include Gen Z and late millennial voters (aged 18 to 29):
Men:
49% - Donald Trump
48% - Kamala Harris
Women
61% - Kamala Harris
38% - Donald Trump
That same exit poll gave Donald Trump and 11-point lead (55-44) among first-time voters.
Let’s keep this tour of the G7 going to the United Kingdom, and the results of last year’s election which gave the Labour Party one of their largest-ever majorities. Figures below are from YouGov’s exit poll data from voters aged 18 to 24 in Great Britain:
Men:
40% - Labour
16% - Liberal Democrat
12% - Reform
12% - Green
10% - Conservative
Women:
42% - Labour
23% - Green
16% - Liberal Democrat
6% - Conservative
6% - Reform
The gender divide among British Gen Z voters is largely based on two parties that ran to the left (Greens) and to the right (Reform) of the other three major parties.
Will this demographic of voters actually cost the Liberals the next election? Is the next election even winnable without this segment of voters going Liberal?
Quite simply, younger voters get their information in a completely different way than even millennials. The pandemic radically altered the way this generation of voters consume the news - from the explosion of sites like Twitch and TikTok, to the way in which algorithms (and the manipulation of them thereof) seek to both reinforce and re-educate those that continue to consume content.
If you talk to anyone who has TikTok, you’ll know that no two For You pages are alike. TikTok’s algorithm picks up on a user’s preferences - what they like, what they share, what they skip, what they scroll past, and what kind of content they engage in.
Does the app want you to see the latest trends in fashion, dance, and music?
Or has the app learned enough about you that it knows your political leanings, the kind of nerdy interests you have, and has even pushed said political leanings further to the left and right of where they were originally?
There’s a reason why simple slogans from Pierre Poilievre have gotten the reach they have on social media: They’re simple, they’re effective, and they’re able to be shared widely and easily by both the party and by their influencers.
Algorithms, however, are not the only reason as to why Gen Z tends to be further left and right than mainstream political parties.
They’ve had it tough through the pandemic; whether through a lack of in-person socialization during crucial developmental years, or a complete transition in the way they consume and synthesize information.
In short, vibes matter, and if the vibes of the leader and their campaign don’t match with their algorithms, and in turn, the vibes of this crucial electorate, it can cause significant negative repercussions.
A single decision that might seem insignificant in the moment can catch on like wildfire, changing the dynamics of a campaign in an instant. There’s one example from from last year’s American presidential election that really stood out to me: Reining in Tim Walz.
The vibe shift that occurred in the hours and days following President Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Harris’ entry into the campaign was nothing short of unprecedented. In a few fleeting moments, what seemed like an impossibility turned into a tidal wave.
A Feminonomenon, a Brat Summer, whatever you want to call it, the vibe shift was real.
And picking Tim Walz as her running mate was exactly what was needed to meet the moment. His folksy midwest charm and his ways of telling it like it was continued the vibe shift. Calling Republicans “weird” and even making reference to a meme about the now-Vice President and furniture? Yeah, that stuff actually worked.
Then, something changed. As the campaign went on, while Walz was still given some rein to make comments like that, there was a definite tone shift.
He was still able to meet the moment - just as Vice President Harris did; but the vibes, especially among young men, shifted back to now-President Trump.
Making sure you’ve got the right policies is one thing. Making sure you meet the moment with vibes that match the grievances of a generation raised in a truly unprecedented times is another thing.
Pierre Poilievre, up until very recently, did this with incredible success. But even his vibe is beginning to shift in the wake of the Prime Minister’s resignation and the presidency of Donald Trump.
Meeting the moment at a time when the country is looking at Poilievre as a future Prime Minister was needed.
I’m not so sure he did.
There’s another demographic of voter that the Liberals need to keep close: The coalition of young and first-time voters that swept them to power in 2015. That includes little old me.
(Don’t worry, I’m still voting Liberal)
This generation of voters may have had their first real political experiences around 2008 for two primary reasons: the global recession and Barack Obama. As the first generation of voters to be what some would call “chronically online”, the success of Barack Obama’s digital campaign set the stage for how politics would evolve over the next (nearly) two decades.
This generation may have also been directly affected by the 2008 recession; perhaps their family members or others close to them were laid off or had to make other difficult financial decisions because of the global financial situation.
They might have participated in an Occupy Wall Street-esque demonstration in their communities. They might have become even more politically-conscious during the 2011 election; riding the wave of hope and optimism promised by Jack Layton and the NDP.
I’ll admit that I was part of that group - if I was old enough to vote in 2011, it would’ve been for the NDP.
The hopes of that generation of voters - to deliver positive and progressive change to government - might have been mildly dashed when the Conservatives won a majority; however, as we all know, the tide turned in a certain direction in 2015.
Justin Trudeau ushered in a different way of doing government - from a gender-balanced cabinet to publicly-available mandate letters - reassuring voters (especially this generation of first-timers) that real change was indeed occurring.
But the politics of hope can sometimes be rough around the edges. Difficult decisions have to be made on which policies to prioritize.
None is perhaps more notable in Justin Trudeau’s first term than electoral reform. We all know the quote by now:
“The 2015 election will be the last federal election using first-past-the-post.”
It gave a new generation of voters hope that change this bold and progressive could actually happen. In March 2025, we know that 2015 was not, in fact, the last federal election using first-past-the-post. I remember very well the discussions that happened when Trudeau reneged on electoral reform.
It caught many off-guard, with some wondering why the government would abandon a policy plank so key to their 2015 win.
Some even wondered whether the Prime Minister was going back on his word about actually doing politics different, and rejecting the politics of cynicism.
Whether it was an omen for the years to come, it’s something that left a sour taste with many first-time voters - they might have voted Liberal in 2015, but that new coalition of voters might consider other progressive alternatives in 2019.
There’s no discussion about voters my age without a mention of housing. I’d like to buy a home at some point. I know many people my age do as well. The market these days is something else - and it has been for quite a while.
Something the Conservatives have done very effectively up to this point is peeling off the Liberals’ 2015 coalition piece-by-piece, tapping into the grievances many of them have not just with buying a home, but renting too.
We see it appear all the time in online forums and discussions. We see it in Question Period and committee meetings. We see it in social media content and mailouts.
There are legitimate grievances from people my age, and some believe that the Conservatives are the best option to bring about change needed in the housing market.
But it’s not too late to change that. We’ve already seen major strides made in refocusing the National Housing Strategy towards increasing supply and reducing the barriers needed to build. The Housing Accelerator Fund, for one, is an often underappreciated but rather significant legacy project for the government.
The continued refocusing under both Ministers Fraser and Erskine-Smith are a sign that the government is taking losing a generation of voters to the Conservatives seriously. They’re not changes that happen overnight, but there are measurable things happening that could very well draw that coalition of 2015 voters back into the fold.
I say all this because there’s a generation of voters that feel far differently about the government now than they did in 2015. While our politics have been turned upside-down over the last eight weeks - from a resignation to a trade war - that doesn’t change the fact that things could very well flip back in a general election.
It wouldn’t be the first time something like that happened, either.
In 1984, following Pierre Trudeau’s final resignation, Liberal polling numbers started to improve from being well behind Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives. Not too long after John Turner - who, at the time, was not a Parliamentarian - became Liberal leader and Prime Minister, the Liberals retook a polling lead. It looked pretty solid.
Then the campaign started. And those that know elections know exactly how 1984 ended.
Even though it was over forty years ago, there’s something of an oddly familiar pattern reappearing now - especially if Mark Carney (who currently isn’t a Parliamentarian) wins the leadership. Polling seems to be right where it was at this time in 1984. There’s going to be an election soon.
Could things revert back to the way things were in December 2024 during the campaign, leading to a Conservative supermajority? They very well could.
But keeping a close eye on both the 2015 Liberal coalition and the voting behaviours of Gen Z (and having a clear understanding of what’s driving the gender divide among Gen Z voters) is critical for the Liberals in ensuring that the support they’ve regained from other parties over the last eight weeks doesn’t fizzle away as quickly as it came back.
Some weeks feel like a year. Some years feel like a few weeks. 2025’s already shown that it’s a year of twists and turns. More can still come our way.
It’s best for the Liberals to over-prepare, because you never know what might come next.
To close this piece, I leave you with this excerpt from a speech that a certain leader of a certain third party made in June 2015:
A great many Canadians I have spoken to have told me that “all politicians are the same.” I know that is not true. But I understand why they think it is.
So, we have to change things. We have to show Canadians that real change is possible. We have to prove that we will be doing things differently.
I take my inspiration from the values that Canadians share, from the dreams they have for their future. I’m here today because I want to see Canadians full of hope again. And see cynicism and fear retreat to the dark holes from whence they came.
To do that, we need to show Canadians that real change is possible. We need to prove that a Liberal government will do things differently. Friends, government can change. It must change.