Hi Jon, thanks for your piece. Curious now as I'm working on a mini-set of ridings to watch at federal level. A couple of questions:
1) For Atlantic Canada, it seems like the CPC numbers have ranged along 4-7 seats. Assuming four likelist ones be Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy Royal, Saint John-St Croix (ex-NB Southwest) and Acadie-Annapolis....
Which one of Cumberland-Colchester, South Shore-St Margarets and Miramichi-Grand Lake do you see staying CPC? I personally assume C-C but you would know better than I do for sure. I am assuming Central Newfoundland goes back to LPC for now, even though that one looks close according to polls.
2) How many seats do you realistically see LPC winning in Calgary? McKnight looks to be a safe hold but Skyview, Centre and Confederation also seem likely options.
1) You've got the first four seats right (the way I see it right now). Out of Cumberland-Colchester, South Shore-St Margarets, and Miramichi-Grand Lake, C-C seems to be the one that'll stay blue; however, it did go Liberal in 2015 and 2019.
Over in Miramichi, the Liberals will likely be aided by CPC infighting, a new CPC candidate, the LPC running their 2021 candidate (who lost by a very narrow margin), and strong ground game at both the federal and provincial levels (former MP Pat Finnigan is one of their MLAs).
And over in SSSM, there's no NDP candidate (albeit there's an independent endorsed by them), so those votes have to go somewhere; however, redistribution did make the seat marginally more Conservative.
2) One guaranteed (McKnight), one near-guarantee (Skyview), and two other very distinct possibilities (Confederation and Centre).
Hi Jon, thanks for your piece. Curious now as I'm working on a mini-set of ridings to watch at federal level. A couple of questions:
1) For Atlantic Canada, it seems like the CPC numbers have ranged along 4-7 seats. Assuming four likelist ones be Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy Royal, Saint John-St Croix (ex-NB Southwest) and Acadie-Annapolis....
Which one of Cumberland-Colchester, South Shore-St Margarets and Miramichi-Grand Lake do you see staying CPC? I personally assume C-C but you would know better than I do for sure. I am assuming Central Newfoundland goes back to LPC for now, even though that one looks close according to polls.
2) How many seats do you realistically see LPC winning in Calgary? McKnight looks to be a safe hold but Skyview, Centre and Confederation also seem likely options.
Hey Henry - thanks for the great questions!
1) You've got the first four seats right (the way I see it right now). Out of Cumberland-Colchester, South Shore-St Margarets, and Miramichi-Grand Lake, C-C seems to be the one that'll stay blue; however, it did go Liberal in 2015 and 2019.
Over in Miramichi, the Liberals will likely be aided by CPC infighting, a new CPC candidate, the LPC running their 2021 candidate (who lost by a very narrow margin), and strong ground game at both the federal and provincial levels (former MP Pat Finnigan is one of their MLAs).
And over in SSSM, there's no NDP candidate (albeit there's an independent endorsed by them), so those votes have to go somewhere; however, redistribution did make the seat marginally more Conservative.
2) One guaranteed (McKnight), one near-guarantee (Skyview), and two other very distinct possibilities (Confederation and Centre).